Yankees mailbag, part 2: Projecting the starting lineup for Opening Day

Opening Day is looming. On March 30, Yankees manager Aaron Boone will plop down into the big comfy chair inside his office in Yankee Stadium and write his first lineup of the 2023 season. It almost surely will feature DJ LeMahieu at the top with Aaron Judge and the rest of the big bats to follow. But what about the bottom half of the batting order? Who starts in left field? Who’s the shortstop?

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In Part 2 of this week’s mailbag, we attempt to answer those questions and many more.

Predictions for the opening day starting lineup? — Joseph S.  

Because of Harrison Bader’s injury, some shuffling in the outfield is necessary. Judge started more games in center field than right field last season and he’s perfectly comfortable in the middle of the outfield. The Yankees hope to play Stanton around 40 to 60 games in the outfield this season, which is important because on those days he is in the field it allows for more flexibility to further enhance their lineup by allowing more clear opportunities for LeMahieu to play. Donaldson and Hicks are two names Yankees fans don’t want to see in the lineup but it seems likely they’ll both be in there. As I said in Wednesday’s mailbag, Peraza seems like the favorite to win the starting shortstop job.

The Yankees’ lineup is, once again, too right-hand dominant. It’ll be interesting to see if they end up addressing that by the trade deadline because it’s an issue that causes them problems in the playoffs. — Kirschner

Chris, I like your lineup. If we get technical about it, the Yankees will face the Giants on Opening Day, which means righty Logan Webb will be on the mound. Last season, lefties posted a .730 OPS vs. Webb compared to a .548 OPS for righties. I could imagine Oswaldo Cabrera starting in left field over Hicks. Cabrera, a switch-hitter, could be the better lefty hitting option. — Kuty

Does a trade of middle infielders for pitching help seem more likely and who may be available? — Phil B.

I wouldn’t say it seems more likely. Considering how good Anthony Volpe has looked, it could give the Yankees more motivation to trade either Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Torres. But I think both of those players were on the trading block before spring training began. If the Twins were to fall out of contention, Pablo López could pique the Yankees’ interest again. The Yankees talked to the Marlins about a potential deal for López last trade deadline, and then this offseason, Miami sent him to Minnesota. The Yankees would love to get their hands on the Brewers’ Corbin Burnes, but so would everybody. What about Lucas Giolito of the White Sox? He’ll be a free agent at the end of the season. — Kuty

What do you think is the Yankees’ long-term plan at third base? Even if they’re being honest that they think Donaldson can bounce back (I’m skeptical, to put it politely), he’s 37 and a free agent after this season. Does LeMahieu become the everyday third baseman instead of the super-utility role? Does one of Peraza or Volpe profile well if they were to switch to third? Or maybe if Cabrera can hit like he did toward the end of last season, does he move into that position? — Mac Q.

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Donaldson certainly isn’t the future. This will be his final season in The Bronx. LeMahieu is under contract for three more years but I think the Yankees will be very cautious with his workload. I see him staying in the super-utility role that he’s in now. I don’t think Cabrera will end up at third base long term. Manny Machado would have been the perfect free agent target for the Yankees but he signed an extension with the Padres earlier this month. There’s not a prospect in the Yankees’ farm system that projects as a long-term viable option at third. Andres Chapparo has popped with his bat this spring but he might be more of a first baseman in the big leagues. I think both Volpe and Peraza could handle third if needed but I also don’t think that’s their best position long term.

There’s a Japanese superstar third baseman, Munetaka Murakami, who’s 22 and will be posted after the 2025 season. He slashed .318/.458/.711 with 56 home runs last season and is widely considered the best professional hitter not in the major leagues.

Munetaka Murakami.

No. 56. pic.twitter.com/SGb923Ydyy

— Jason Coskrey (@JCoskrey) October 3, 2022

That’s the guy the Yankees should have their eyes on as their future third baseman. — Kirschner

If the Yankees get off to a rough start, do you believe they will clean house? Like fire Boone? — Glenn R.

I sense you already want Boone fired. Look, if they tank to start the season and the team appears in disarray, sure. Everything would be on the table. But the Yankees have shown a clear willingness to stick it out with Boone, general manager Brian Cashman and just about everyone else. (They won 99 games last year, remember.) I don’t believe Boone’s job would be in trouble if the Yankees simply got off to a rough start. They would need to become a dumpster fire in a post-apocalyptic hellscape — and something bad would need to happen, something along the lines of a clubhouse mutiny. Boone is in Year 2 of his three-year deal. They love him. It would have to be the worst of the worst for him to be fired. — Kuty

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Will Gleyber Torres play another postseason game for the Yankees? — Scott L. 

Let me preface this by saying this is just me guessing, but I’m leaning toward no. They’ve already explored trading him last season and now Volpe is pushing for playing time at the major-league level. In order to make that happen, it likely means Torres would be the odd man out.  — Kirschner 

Why should we believe that this team will be different and be able to hit and score runs in the postseason? — Paul K.  

Because it’s March 16 and you don’t know what the team will look like in October. And because you can’t predict health, so you project the offense based on healthy players. Look, nobody wants to say it — especially angry Yankees fans who want to stay angry — but the lineup almost definitely would have performed better if Andrew Benintendi and DJ LeMahieu were healthy in the playoffs last year. Now, you go into the season assuming that you’ve got a healthy LeMahieu, and assuming the Yankees will figure out left field either via someone stepping up and playing well (Hicks? Cabrera?) or via trade (Bryan Reynolds?). — Kuty

Given the status of the rotation, are there any players in the minors you see getting a shot that otherwise wouldn’t? — Ethan K. 

To start the season, no, I don’t see any players in the minors who have a chance of cracking the rotation. For one, the Yankees already optioned Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez, two starters on the 40-man roster, to Triple A and sent them to minor league camp. After the injury to Carlos Rodón, it’s now likely both Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt will break camp as starters. Brito, Vasquez, Deivi Garcia, Yoendrys Gómez, Sean Boyle and Mitch Spence are some of the minor league pitchers who could end up seeing some time in the majors in various roles this season. Also, don’t forget about Luis Gil, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s been long tossing and could be back at some point in the middle of the season if his recovery stays on track. — Kirschner

If Cashman knew about these injuries, why were these his targets? — Christian W.

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He didn’t know about the injuries. Yes, the Yankees knew that Frankie Montas had shoulder problems, but the A’s medical staff cleared him to return to the mound. Then the Yankees’ medical staff reviewed him and also determined he was healthy. In the offseason, the Yankees were convinced that Montas was going to be healthy for spring training after an MRI on his shoulder didn’t reveal new structural damage. Dr. Neal ElAttrache, a leading sports orthopedist, also cleared Montas to begin throwing, only for Montas to shut down his throwing program again. That’s when exploratory surgery happened. Lots of doctors cleared Montas. Cashman was relying on advice from the medical community. Cashman didn’t know about Andrew Benintendi’s hamate bone — it just broke out of nowhere on a swing. Cashman didn’t know that Scott Effross was going to suddenly blow out his ulnar collateral ligament and need Tommy John surgery. — Kuty

Has Michael King put the nail in his own “hopes to become a starter one day” coffin by being such a fantastic reliever? Or are they still willing to consider it down the line? — Rachel B. 

Boone was asked about this possibility a few weeks ago. Here’s what he had to say:

“I think probably a bullpen role,” Boone said. “With Michael, one of the conversations that we’ve had quite a bit of talk and debate about is what’s the best way to use him? Is it in that multi-inning role out of the ‘pen every few days where he can essentially get some high-leverage guys days off? Is he part of the short stint, one-inning, one-plus-inning guys in the back of the bullpen? I think there wasn’t a more valuable guy in the sport before he got hurt last year and I would say as we sit here right now, really encouraged about where he’s at physically in his return, but I think how to use him — and I view it right now out of the bullpen — how we best use him and how he fits into the bullpen will be something we probably have a lot of talk and debate about.”

So to answer your question, his value is so high out of the bullpen that the Yankees are keeping him in that role. — Kirschner 

The Yankees’ injury problem is not new. What, if anything, has been done to alleviate that problem? — Robert M.

In January 2020, the Yankees hired performance coach Eric Cressey to overhaul their training and strength and conditioning departments. In 2022, the Yankees had 29 players hit the injured list — the eighth-most in the majors, according to Spotrac. That was down from the 35 players they sent to the IL in 2021. The 2020 season was shortened to 60 games due to the coronavirus pandemic and wouldn’t provide a good sample size. — Kuty

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How much of a boost to the YES Network’s ratings would it be if the Opening Day starting lineup included all of Volpe, Peraza, Cabrera, and Dominguez? — Roger G. 

I have a hard time believing that it would be a dramatic difference. Viewership was up 27 percent last season, partly because of Judge’s American League home run record chase and the team starting off on such a torrid pace.

There’s obviously a bunch of social media chatter about the Yankees’ kids but that’s just a small part of the team’s fanbase. If all four players were raking and the Yankees were winning, I think the ratings would reflect that. But I don’t think the average fan is tuning in to see four rookies figure it out at the big-league level. I could be wrong about that, but I don’t see how they’d increase viewership just because they’re in the lineup. Fans care about winning. — Kirschner

How come Willie Randolph never got a shot to manage the Yankees? — John M.

Randolph was managing the Mets when the Yankees replaced Joe Torre with Joe Girardi in 2008. Randolph didn’t get an interview for the open manager’s job that went to Boone, whom the Yankees liked because he was young and expected to be a great communicator between the front office and the clubhouse. In the 2014-2015 offseason, the Yankees did interview Randolph for a coaching job on Girardi’s staff. Later that year, they gave him a plaque in Monument Park. He’s been around as a Yankees spring training instructor many times. But as for why he was never given a shot to manage the Yankees? It appears the timing was never right between Torre, Girardi and Boone. — Kuty 

I know people complain about Cashman, but seriously, would any other front office executive still have a job after the last 24 months of signings and trades? Actually, let’s go back to the Sonny Gray trade. — Vincent L.

The one thing I rarely hear from fans who want Cashman fired is the candidate they would choose to replace him. Would it be someone internal? Obviously not. If you want Cashman fired, you probably want his whole regime tossed out, too. So, who’s the external candidate? Is it Theo Epstein, who’s already a lock to be a Hall of Famer? Why would he want the job right now? Is it Cashman’s good friend and Moneyball advocate Billy Beane? Or would the Yankees be expected to pluck someone from another organization? If they did, they would probably look to successful franchises like the Rays, Dodgers and Astros, who already run things like the Yankees do. I’m not saying that anybody’s job should be untouchable. I’m asking who’s the obvious successor? — Kuty

I’ve heard DJ LeMahieu and Aaron Hicks earn 10-and-five right this year. How soon is that happening, and do you think this will affect any trade decisions as they finalize the opening-day roster? — Rachel B.

A player’s 10-and-five no-trade rights kick in after he’s spent 10 years in the major leagues and five straight years with the same organization. Hicks and LeMahieu each would earn them with the Yankees after this year’s trade deadline, which is at 6 p.m. Aug. 1. I don’t think either player’s 10-and-five rights would affect trades prior to the Opening Day roster. This is something the Yankees have known is coming, though it’s likely (and obvious) the Yankees would prefer Hicks to not have the ability to block a trade. — Kuty

(Top photo of Aaron Judge: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)